Copper’s Wild Ride: What’s Ahead for 2025

If you’ve been keeping an eye on the price of copper lately, you probably noticed it’s been anything but boring. Just last week, Comex copper futures in New York jumped 4% to $4.718 per pound—pretty much the minute President Trump told the Commerce Department to dig into potential tariffs on copper imports. It’s a classic Trump move, straight out of his first-term playbook when he slapped 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. And for those of us with a stake in commodities, it’s a signal that 2025 could be a wild ride for copper. We’re expecting a lot of ups and downs, mostly thanks to this tariff talk, so let’s unpack what’s going on and what it means for your portfolio.

The Big Picture

Copper’s having a moment. It’s the metal that powers everything from electric vehicles to solar grids, and the long-term story—think electrification and tight supply—has folks like Goldman Sachs downright giddy. They’re back with a bullish call, pegging copper at $10,500 to $11,500 per ton down the road. That’s $4.76 to $5.22 per pound, if you’re doing the math, and it’s based on this “electrification megatrend” they can’t stop talking about, plus some help from China’s stimulus and a supply squeeze. Sounds great, right? But here’s the catch: those tariff threats are throwing a wrench into the near-term outlook, and that’s where the volatility comes in.

Why It’s Going to Get Choppy

Let’s start with the elephant in the room—Trump’s tariff probe. He’s got Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick leading a Section 232 investigation, which is basically a deep dive into whether copper imports are a national security risk. It’s got a 270-day clock, so by late October, we’ll know if tariffs are coming for raw copper, refined stuff, alloys, scrap—you name it. The goal? Boost U.S. mining and cut reliance on China. Noble idea, but the road there could be messy. If tariffs hit, they might jack up costs for American manufacturers who lean on imported copper, cooling demand and dragging prices down. On the flip side, if foreign supply gets choked off, we could see rallies as domestic stocks tighten. Either way, the market’s going to be on edge, jumping at every headline.

Then there’s China, the copper demand king. Goldman’s betting on a 4% bump in refined copper use this year, thanks to EVs and grid upgrades, even with their construction sector dragging its feet. But tariffs could nibble away at that growth, and China’s stimulus might not pack the punch everyone hopes. Add in a global economy that’s still figuring itself out—Interest rates, Dollar strength, geopolitical alignment, AI and energy transitions—and you’ve got a recipe for some serious price swings. Oh, and don’t sleep on the supply side: mines are struggling, scrap is scarce, and speculators have been piling on, ready to amplify every move.

What to Expect—and How to Play It

So, where’s copper headed for the rest of 2025? In the absence of any new tariffs, we would expect it to bounce between $4.00 and $5.00 per pound, with a chance of dropping back into $3.00-range if the economy slows down. Goldman’s got an average of $9,740 per ton ($4.42 per pound) penciled in, with a peak at $11,500 by 2026 if things really heat up. But with ongoing discussion of tariffs in the mix, expect sharp spikes—maybe 5% in a day—around big news like that October report, followed by dips if demand stumbles. It also wouldn’t surprise us if a tariff announcement comes well before October, without warning.

In our opinion, the risk lies primarily to the upside. This is less about panic and more about risk management and opportunity. Keep an eye on the dips— below $4.50 could be a bargain if electrification keeps humming and a significant tariff is introduced. If copper is a big part of your business (homebuilders, battery makers, etc.), you might want to investigate hedging those costs. The key? Stay nimble and watch the triggers—trade updates, Chinese data, mining news, EV sales, and economic data.

Get Ready

Copper’s got a bright future—electrification is growing, and supply’s not keeping up. But 2025? It’s likely to be a rollercoaster, mostly because of those tariff clouds. Buckle up, stay sharp, and we’ll keep you posted as this plays out.

Copper’s Wild Ride: What’s Ahead for 2025

If you’ve been keeping an eye on the price of copper lately, you probably noticed it’s been anything but boring. Just last week, Comex copper futures in New York jumped 4% to $4.718 per pound—pretty much the minute President Trump told the Commerce Department to dig into potential tariffs on copper imports. It’s a classic Trump move, straight out of his first-term playbook when he slapped 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. And for those of us with a stake in commodities, it’s a signal that 2025 could be a wild ride for copper. We’re expecting a lot of ups and downs, mostly thanks to this tariff talk, so let’s unpack what’s going on and what it means for your portfolio.

The Big Picture

Copper’s having a moment. It’s the metal that powers everything from electric vehicles to solar grids, and the long-term story—think electrification and tight supply—has folks like Goldman Sachs downright giddy. They’re back with a bullish call, pegging copper at $10,500 to $11,500 per ton down the road. That’s $4.76 to $5.22 per pound, if you’re doing the math, and it’s based on this “electrification megatrend” they can’t stop talking about, plus some help from China’s stimulus and a supply squeeze. Sounds great, right? But here’s the catch: those tariff threats are throwing a wrench into the near-term outlook, and that’s where the volatility comes in.

Why It’s Going to Get Choppy

Let’s start with the elephant in the room—Trump’s tariff probe. He’s got Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick leading a Section 232 investigation, which is basically a deep dive into whether copper imports are a national security risk. It’s got a 270-day clock, so by late October, we’ll know if tariffs are coming for raw copper, refined stuff, alloys, scrap—you name it. The goal? Boost U.S. mining and cut reliance on China. Noble idea, but the road there could be messy. If tariffs hit, they might jack up costs for American manufacturers who lean on imported copper, cooling demand and dragging prices down. On the flip side, if foreign supply gets choked off, we could see rallies as domestic stocks tighten. Either way, the market’s going to be on edge, jumping at every headline.

Then there’s China, the copper demand king. Goldman’s betting on a 4% bump in refined copper use this year, thanks to EVs and grid upgrades, even with their construction sector dragging its feet. But tariffs could nibble away at that growth, and China’s stimulus might not pack the punch everyone hopes. Add in a global economy that’s still figuring itself out—Interest rates, Dollar strength, geopolitical alignment, AI and energy transitions—and you’ve got a recipe for some serious price swings. Oh, and don’t sleep on the supply side: mines are struggling, scrap is scarce, and speculators have been piling on, ready to amplify every move.

What to Expect—and How to Play It

So, where’s copper headed for the rest of 2025? In the absence of any new tariffs, we would expect it to bounce between $4.00 and $5.00 per pound, with a chance of dropping back into $3.00-range if the economy slows down. Goldman’s got an average of $9,740 per ton ($4.42 per pound) penciled in, with a peak at $11,500 by 2026 if things really heat up. But with ongoing discussion of tariffs in the mix, expect sharp spikes—maybe 5% in a day—around big news like that October report, followed by dips if demand stumbles. It also wouldn’t surprise us if a tariff announcement comes well before October, without warning.

In our opinion, the risk lies primarily to the upside. This is less about panic and more about risk management and opportunity. Keep an eye on the dips— below $4.50 could be a bargain if electrification keeps humming and a significant tariff is introduced. If copper is a big part of your business (homebuilders, battery makers, etc.), you might want to investigate hedging those costs. The key? Stay nimble and watch the triggers—trade updates, Chinese data, mining news, EV sales, and economic data.

Get Ready

Copper’s got a bright future—electrification is growing, and supply’s not keeping up. But 2025? It’s likely to be a rollercoaster, mostly because of those tariff clouds. Buckle up, stay sharp, and we’ll keep you posted as this plays out.