January WASDE Shifts Markets: Corn, Soy Stocks Drop

Global grain markets have jumped after the latest USDA January WASDE revealed steep cuts to U.S. corn and soybean stocks. The report sparked fresh buying across the commodity complex, with March corn futures reaching a high of 477 cents and March soybeans gaining nearly 28 cents Monday closing at $10.53.

Corn Bulls Get Their Break

U.S. corn stocks dropped sharply in January’s update, with USDA slashing the estimate by 276 million bushels to 14.9 billion. Yields fell 3.8 bushels per acre nationwide, catching many traders off guard. The cuts pushed the season-average price forecast to $4.25 per bushel.

Key corn numbers to watch:

• Production: 14.9 billion bushels (-276 million)
• Yield: Down 3.8 bu/acre
• Price target: $4.25/bu
• Stocks-to-use ratio: 8.2%

Soybean Supplies Shrink

Soybean stocks plunged 90 million bushels to 380 million, the lowest level since 2021. Strong exports offset slightly weaker biofuel demand. Cash prices firmed across the Midwest as processors competed for remaining supplies.

Brazil’s crop remains the wild card. Early harvest reports point to yields 10-15% below last year in key growing regions. Any further cuts could send global buyers rushing to U.S. ports.

Wheat: Russia Steps Back

Russian wheat exports dropped by 1 million tons, opening doors for U.S. sellers. Global stocks rose to 258.8 million tons on increases from Brazil and Nigeria, but quality wheat remains tight. U.S. farm price dipped $0.05 to $5.55 per bushel.

Rice Hits Record Yield

U.S. rice yields reached an unprecedented 7,748 pounds per acre. Yet ending stocks fell to 43.5 million cwt as domestic use stayed strong. Export opportunities look promising across Asia and Latin America.

Protein Markets Mixed

• Eggs: Production fell on bird flu impact
• Cattle: Higher prices expected; weights up
• Feed costs: Rising corn prices pressure margins

What to Look for Next

Corn

• Watch the basis for storage signals
• Consider long corn/short wheat spreads

Soybeans

• Monitor South American weather
• Watch crush margins for demand clues

Wheat

• Track Black Sea shipping rates
• Consider quality spreads

Market Calendar

January

• 22nd: Export inspections
• 25th: South America weather update
• 29th: Monthly grain stocks

February

• 8th: WASDE update
• 15th: Brazil harvest progress
• 21st: Export sales revision

Visit CordierCommodityReport.com for market updates.